By Nicolas Avila · October 9, 2026

Supplier lead times vs. delivery promises to customers

Photo: Avila Ops Tecnologia

Your customer promise adds three times: the supplier’s (if not in stock), yours (picking and shipping), and transit. Promising only the latter two when the first exists causes almost every “unexplained” delay. For made-to-order products, suppliers form part of your promise, and customers do not know they exist.

June shows this in two ways. Personalized Brazilian Valentine’s Day sets requiring outsourced engraving. And sold-out Festa Junina product replenishment with suppliers late because everyone ordered the same week. In both cases, customers bought from you, not suppliers.

Where the calculation breaks

The common error is advertising in-stock timing for made-to-order goods. Stores say “dispatch within 2 business days” because that is their shelf-item process. For supplier items, those two days start only after arrival, without customer notice.

Another error is using promised rather than actual supplier lead times. They say 5 days. In June, they take 9. If you promised based on 5, every order that month runs 4 days late and generates “where is it?” messages.

Third, lacking per-supplier timing. Every made-to-order product says “up to 10 days,” although one supplier delivers in 3 and another in 15.

Calculating timing per product

1. Actual supplier lead time: median of the last five orders from order date to receipt, not what they say. During seasons, use the previous equivalent season if available.
2. Supplier buffer: add 2 business days for reliable suppliers, 4 for frequently late ones.
3. Your dispatch time: business days from receipt to shipment, generally 1 or 2.
4. Transit: Correios or carrier timing for the customer’s postal code.

Put the “promise” column on product pages, showing different times per product rather than one global time. Customers knowing personalized items take 15 business days order May 20 for June 12. Those seeing “4 days” order June 8 and do not receive them.

What to do when suppliers are late

Notify customers when you discover it, not when the deadline passes. State the new dated deadline, a one-sentence reason, and a choice: wait, exchange for in-stock goods, or cancel with a full refund.

For occasions, choice matters more than waiting. Customers needing gifts June 12 prefer discounted in-stock items over waiting for the right one June 16.

Record delays against suppliers, not only orders. Three seasonal delays change a supplier’s category: raise their buffer or remove their products from June’s catalog.

What to do now

List made-to-order products and verify each page shows its own timing based on actual supplier performance. If all show the same number, someone will receive late this month. A system recording actual supplier lead times and calculating per-product delivery: avilaops.com/sistema-para-pequenas-empresas or contact us on WhatsApp: wa.me/5517997811471.

Frequently asked questions

How do I calculate made-to-order delivery times?

Add actual supplier timing (median recent orders plus buffer), your dispatch time, and transit to the customer’s postal code. Show the result on that product’s page in business days, without one global store deadline.

What if suppliers are late and customers already paid?

Notify the same day with a new date and offer waiting, exchanging for in-stock goods, or full refund. Article 35 of the Consumer Protection Code grants these options when stores fail to honor offers; proactively offering them preserves relationships.

Must I tell customers products come from suppliers?

You need not explain the chain. Show the right timing. “Made to order, 15 business days” is honest and sufficient. Customers decide with the information, avoiding later apologies.