Seasonal products: how much to buy and when
Photo: Avila Ops Tecnologia
Buy seasonal products using three numbers: sales in the same period last year, supplier delivery days and the date sales stop. The first determines quantity. The second determines purchase timing. The third sets the replenishment cutoff. Without all three, buying is guesswork, creating surpluses or shortages.
Seasonal products tie up money. Popcorn kernels, peanut sweets and quentao left in July sit until next year, if they last. A Brazilian Valentine’s Day bundle selling out on June 9 is a sale that never returns. June has two seasons in one month, doubling the cost of mistakes.
How much to buy: last year’s sales, not the average
Annual averages do not work for seasonal products. They dilute three good weeks across 52. Use the same period last year, daily if available, weekly otherwise.
Without history, because it is your first year or the spreadsheet was lost, use two references: sales of your most similar product and half the inventory your supplier recommends for your size. Buy less in the first shipment and replenish. Unit costs are higher but fewer items remain.
History is decided during the season: June sales must be recorded daily by product to guide next June. If your system does not retain this, you will guess again.
When to buy: work backward
- The date sales end. Brazilian Valentine’s Day: June 12, with the final online purchase around four days earlier. June festivals: end of June, checking that year’s last weekend, with a tail into July festivals.
- Supplier lead time in June, not April. Seasonal suppliers run late because everyone orders together. Add 30% to their stated lead time.
- Final replenishment cutoff: the sales end date minus supplier lead time with a buffer. After this, stop buying even if sales continue.
- First purchase: arrive when demand begins, usually two to three weeks before the occasion.
| Stage | Brazilian Valentine’s Day | June festivals |
|---|---|---|
| Demand begins | Late May | First week of June |
| First purchase arrives | By May 25 | By June 1 |
| Final replenishment leaves | By June 1 | By June 12 |
| Sales end | June 12 | June 30 |
These dates are references for stores dispatching in one business day. Adjust to your deadlines.
What to do with leftovers
Leftovers happen even with correct calculations. What matters is your response in early July rather than September.
Products lasting a year: check expiration dates, store them and record quantities. They become next season’s opening inventory and reduce next year’s purchase.
Products that will not last: bundles, clearance discounts in July’s first week or combinations with year-round sellers. Selling at a lower margin in July beats discarding in August.
Records improve the next purchase: quantity bought, sold and left, by product. Three numbers per product solve the next season.
What to do now
Take last year’s biggest seasonal surplus and shortage. Both share the same problem: no daily history. Move beyond spreadsheets without losing history, keeping each season’s sales by product and day: avilaops.com/sistema-para-pequenas-empresas or contact us on WhatsApp: wa.me/5517997811471.
Frequently asked questions
How do I calculate seasonal purchase quantities?
Use weekly sales from the same period last year. Add conservatively expected growth and subtract usable leftovers. Without history, buy half what seems right and replenish.
When should I stop replenishing June festival products?
When replenishment would arrive after June’s last weekend. With a seven-day supplier lead time including a buffer, stop buying after mid-June.
What should I do with leftover Brazilian Valentine’s Day stock?
In the first week afterward, bundle it with year-round products or offer clearance discounts. If the product is undated, record quantities and subtract them from next year’s purchase.
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