Black Friday inventory: what to secure and what not to advertise
Photo: Avila Ops Tecnologia
Secure stock of products already selling well that suppliers confirm in writing. Exclude uncertain replenishment, tight margins, and products you have never sold. Advertising products you cannot deliver costs more than not advertising: customers who pay without receiving complain, and complaints are public.
Suppliers have Black Friday too. November orders join everyone’s queue; October orders arrive on time and leave room to negotiate terms.
How much of each product should you buy?
Photo: Avila Ops Tecnologia
Start with actual sales. List units sold by product over the last 90 days. The 20% of products accounting for most sales form the campaign’s foundation. Estimate Black Friday volume by multiplying normal weekly sales by a factor you choose between two and four, based on planned discounts and reach.
For products never previously promoted, history does not apply. Buy little and treat it as a test. For slow replenishment from suppliers taking over 15 days, buy now or remove them from the promotion.
A supplement store sells 40 containers of one product weekly and estimates 120 during Black Friday week with 20% off and advertising. The supplier delivers in 10 days. It orders 150 in October’s second half, with 30 extra for the following week, receiving them in early November.
What must suppliers guarantee in writing?
Quantity, price, and delivery date. A message suffices if recorded. Anything unconfirmed stays out of the main offer. Ask what happens if delivery is delayed: some suppliers prioritize earlier orders, others split available stock. Knowing this changes your required buffer.
If your main product has one supplier, find a second now, even at a higher price. A sole November supplier means risk without a backup plan.
What should stay out of the promotion?
Products without confirmed stock. Products below 25% margin that cannot absorb discounts or extra packaging and service costs. Heavy or bulky products with intimidating shipping and expensive returns. Products with above-normal exchanges or defects, because volume multiplies problems. New products without complete photos, descriptions, and listings.
These can remain available at normal prices. They simply should not represent the campaign.
| Situation | Decision |
|---|---|
| Sells well, supplier confirmed | Main offer, buy with a buffer |
| Sells well, supplier unconfirmed | Offer only existing stock |
| Never sold before | Small test, outside ads |
| Margin below 25% | Normal price or bundle, no discount |
| Frequent exchanges or defects | Exclude from campaign |
How do you avoid selling unavailable stock?
Connect online inventory to actual stock. If online and physical stores draw from the same supply without automatic updates, double-selling happens on the first peak day. The system must deduct stock at order placement, not picking, and hide products at zero.
Set safety stock for main products, such as five units the store treats as zero. This covers simultaneous orders, defective items, and incorrect counts. The delivery time guide shows how this stock affects promised deadlines.
What to do now
List products by units sold in the last 90 days, flag supplier-confirmed items, and order in October’s second half. Add this to week 1 of the 30-day checklist. If inventory still lives in a spreadsheet nobody updates, we help you move beyond it without losing history: avilaops.com/sistema-para-pequenas-empresas or contact us on WhatsApp: wa.me/5517997811471.
Frequently asked questions
How much stock should I buy for Black Friday?
Multiply main products’ normal weekly sales by two to four, based on planned discounts and ads. Buy a buffer only for supplier-confirmed items.
Is buying new products only for Black Friday worthwhile?
Only in small test quantities. Without sales history, photos, and completed descriptions, new products usually sit unsold or generate exchanges.
What should I do with leftover stock?
Plan now: whatever does not sell in November becomes a Christmas offer, kit, or December gift. Buying a buffer makes sense only with a destination for leftovers.
Connections, made clear
From order to delivery, with every step in view.
An example of connecting E-Commerce with your team’s day-to-day work.
- OrderThe customer chooses items and places an order.
- ValidationCheck the details and product availability.
- ManagementSend the validated order to ERP.
- FulfillmentThe team prepares and dispatches the items.
- CustomerKeep the customer informed about next steps.
- Order. The customer chooses items and places an order.
- Validation. Check the details and product availability.
- Management. Send the validated order to ERP.
- Fulfillment. The team prepares and dispatches the items.
- Customer. Keep the customer informed about next steps.
Order
The customer chooses items and places an order.
Turn what you learned into your next step.
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